- 800K jobs were expected to disappear from the U.S. economy by 2021, as a direct result of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, according to original estimates from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.
- 2M jobs will actually disappear, most of which will be low-wage…
Except that’s not what the CBO says. CBO references workers not jobs being reduced by 2MM.
Surely some low-wage jobs will be eliminated or never created as a result of the law. This will affect the number of low-wage workers that decide to either drop out or not enter the workforce (800K is the number from an earlier CBO review)
However, the law also provides a bridge to Medicare for millions of boomers since their access to health insurance is no longer linked to their employment. Instead of working to get insurance, 60-somethings can retire and buy insurance on the exchanges until the time they qualify for Medicare. They don’t have to mess w/ Cobra or go uninsured.
This is not necessarily a bad thing. Employers can replace high-wage, older workers that opt-out of the workforce with lower cost, younger workers, many of which are desperately looking for work. I’m not advocating for age discrimination. But if the market moves in that direction, businesses could see a net benefit in the cost of employing their workers. In fact, the could “double-dip”, since as they replace older, more-expensive to insure workers with younger, less-expensive to insure workers, businesses might even see the costs of their health insurance benefits go down while at the same time seeing reduced wages for those younger workers!